Monday 24 March 2008

Poker: Luck vs. Skill!

The myth was finally revealed! If you’re an enraged online poker player, then you also believe that poker is most of all, a game of skill. Some people have actually considered this a great premise for a study. Michael Dedonno and Dr. Douglas K. Detterman have tried to find out whether poker is a game of skill or not. Their result could change your online gambling approach. According to “Gambling Law Review”, they started the research with an interesting theory, saying that in games of luck, instruction and strategy are “immaterial”. As for the experimental part of the study, it was conducted at the Case Western Reserve University, where the two brainiacs tested their hypothesis that instruction and strategy count most in a poker player’s performance, meaning poker is a game of skill.

Under a straight forward title, "Poker is Skill," give specific details about the whole process, as well as several results of the experiments conducted at Case Western Reserve University.
However, I wonder if this experiment could also apply to the traditional poker playing. Apparently, the test started by subjecting two separate groups of students to poker simulation software. The only difference: one of the groups was given basic poker training, while the other wasn’t. Both of them were made of novice players.

Among other stuff, they were taught to rank starting hands and the importance of paying attention to the actions and decisions of other players. When the groups were tested again, the researchers had a big surprise. The group that that had been given the specific info regarding poker strategies and regulations outperformed the other one. And when the experiment was run with an increased number of hands and more advanced training, once again the trained group performed the best, even better than the first time. I remind you, these tests were performed using a software platform, so it’s questionable whether they can be considered plausible for traditional playing or not. I am just wondering, could this mean the great poker game is turning into a controlled technological game of skill? Should we forget about the beauty of believing in luck?

As a final conclusion, DeDonno and Detterman said that "the reason that poker appears to be a game of luck is that the reliability of any short session is low." They also added that their second study has shown that reliability was markedly improved after intense training. Their conclusion: "Luck (random factors) disguises the fact that poker is a game of skill. However, as these studies show, skill is the determining factor in long-term outcome." This theory is also sustained by Annie Duke, who says: "you can purposely lose at poker if you choose." That's a good point! Especially, when it comes from a professional poker player who decided to quit college to gamble on a new life. But, could this explain the recent ban on internet gaming? I just say let it happen and find a better way to tax it.

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